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Iranians voted Friday in a snap election to replace the late hard-line President Ebrahim Raisi, with the race’s sole reformist candidate vowing to seek “friendly relations” with the West in an effort to energize supporters in a vote beset by apathy. Voters face a choice between hard-line candidates and the little-known reformist Masoud Pezeshkian, a heart surgeon. As has been the case since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, women and those calling for radical change have been barred from running, while the vote itself will have no oversight from internationally recognized monitors. The voting comes as wider tensions have gripped the Middle East over the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip. In April, Iran launched its first-ever direct attack on Israel over the war in Gaza, while militia groups that Tehran arms in the region — such as the Lebanese Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthi rebels — are engaged in the fighting and have escalated their attacks.
US Issues Fresh Sanctions Against Iran Over Nuclear Escalations | Reuters
The United States on Thursday issued fresh sanctions targeting Iran in response to "continued nuclear escalations," U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement. "Over the past month, Iran has announced steps to further expand its nuclear program in ways that have no credible peaceful purpose," Blinken said. "We remain committed to never letting Iran obtain a nuclear weapon, and we are prepared to use all elements of national power to ensure that outcome." Iran's mission to the United Nations in New York did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Thursday's action imposes sanctions on three companies based in the United Arab Emirates the U.S. accused of being involved in the transport of Iranian petroleum or petrochemical products, as well as 11 associated vessels. Earlier this month, the Group of Seven rich nations warned Iran against advancing its nuclear enrichment program and said they would be ready to enforce new measures if Tehran were to transfer ballistic missiles to Russia.
How The Mahsa Amini Protests Loom Over Iran’s Presidential Election | Time
Since Iran announced it would hold a snap presidential election on Friday, June 28 after the sudden death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash last month, Iranian activists have taken to the streets to denounce the regime and boycott the electoral process. In the latest example, 26 family members of slain Iranian protesters and dissidents issued a joint statement on Wednesday, June 26, calling the election a “circus” and accusing it of being “staged” by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. They include Gohar Eshghi, the mother of Sattar Beheshti, an Iranian blogger who was tortured and killed in prison, and Azamat Azhdari, whose sister Ghanimat Azhdari was on a Ukrainian flight when it was shot down by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards in 2020. “In recent years, the ruling regime in Iran has grieved thousands of families by execution and direct firing at thousands of our young sons and daughters…for protesting inequality, unemployment, oppression and lack of freedom,” the members stated.
UANI IN THE NEWS
A new report by the American non-governmental organization “United Against Nuclear Iran” has revealed the secret activities of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps “Baqiyallah” cultural camp in election engineering and cultural control. The Engineering of Opinions and Votes report, prepared by Kasra Aarabi and Saeed Golkar for United Against Nuclear Iran contains details on how this secretive body operates to control election results. United Against Nuclear Iran says the Baqiyatollah base under the command of Mohammad Ali Jafari, the former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which was established to support Ali Khamenei’s views on the Islamic government and society, uses a comprehensive strategy that includes propaganda, candidate vetting, election engineering, and intimidation of votes.
Iran’s Presidency Is ‘Merely A Rubber Stamp’ | CNBC
Iran’s Presidency is “merely a rubber stamp,” UANI Director of IRGC Research Kasra Aarabi tells CNBC’s Dan Murphy.
Iranians Vote In Election Tomorrow | Sky News
"This is really a circus." UANI Director of IRGC Research Kasra Aarabi tells Sky’s Yalda Hakim that Iran's presidential election is "not free or fair" and all the candidates have been "hand-selected" by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Iran Goes To Polls To Elect New President After Raisi Killed In Helicopter Crash | The Guardian
More than 61.5 million Iranians aged over 18 have been given a chance to vote for a new president and send a message to the regime about the state of the economy. However, millions are expected to boycott the election on Friday, the outcome of which they believe will be manipulated by the regime to ensure a loyalist victory. Iran’s leaders want to renew their legitimacy after a steady decline in turnout reached crisis point last year with fewer than 41% voting in parliamentary elections, and fewer than 10% in the capital, Tehran. […] A new paper by United against a Nuclear Iran, a US pressure group, argues the level of electoral manipulation by the regime goes far wider than simply doctoring the list of eligible candidates. The report highlights the role of the Baqiatallah Cultural and Social Headquarters, which the report says has created a full apparatus and strategy to engineer political and cultural outcomes in Iran.
Kasra Aarabi: “We Must Anticipate An Iranian Escalation In The Next Eight Months” | L’Express
Iran votes, the Supreme Leader chooses. This Friday, June 28, Iranians are officially called to the polls to elect the successor to President Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash on May 19. Behind a thin layer of democratic veneer, this election is being played out between ultraconservatives personally chosen by Ayatollah Khamenei, an octogenarian who alone is at the helm of an extremely aggressive Islamic Republic on the international stage. Kasra Aarabi knows the workings of this brutal regime inside out. Through his contacts within the Revolutionary Guards, the Guide's paramilitary force, this research director at the NGO United Against Nuclear Iran documents the atrocities and sprawling corruption within the Islamic Republic.
Kasra Aarabi: “We Must Not Rule Out Help From Putin For The Iranian Atomic Bomb” | L’Opinion
Iranians are going to the polls on June 28 to elect a successor to President Raisi, who died suddenly in a helicopter crash on May 19. Kasra Aarabi, a British-Iranian researcher and director of research on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) at the United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) association, gives her analysis of the country on the eve of the election on the sidelines of a conference organized in Paris by the Jean Jaurès Foundation and the Europe-Israel Press Association (EIPA). A whole electoral engineering is in place. Six candidates out of eighty, all men loyal to Ali Khamenei, were selected. Even the “self-proclaimed reformer”, Masoud Pezeshkian, claimed that he was there to carry out the will of the Supreme Leader. He did not question the policies of the Islamic Republic. This false veneer of political competition aims to hide the totalitarian nature of this regime.
Iran’s Only Moderate Presidential Candidate Takes Surprise Poll Lead | The Telegraph
Iran’s only moderate candidate for president is leading in the latest polls, prompting panic among hardliners. Masoud Pezeshkian, a surgeon with reformist leanings, is in front with 33.1 per cent of the vote ahead of the ballot on Friday, according to a survey released by Iran’s government-funded ISPA organisation on Wednesday. […] “It’s important to understand that Pezeshkian is a loyalist to the Islamic Republic,” said Jason Brodsky, policy director of United Against Nuclear Iran, an advocacy group. “While he is labelled as reformist, he still believes in the same corrupt, repressive and incompetent regime and system that all of the other conservative and hardliner candidates believe in,” he said. “There is an attempt by the regime to utilise him in a way that will generate turnout and try to legitimise an illegitimate election,” he added.
Shadowy IRGC Group Manipulating Iran’s Elections | Al Arabiya News
As Iranians vote for a successor to the late president Ebrahim Raisi on Friday, a new report has highlighted the covert operations of an obscure entity within Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) that has allegedly been engineering election outcomes to align with the supreme leader’s preferred results. The report by US-based advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), titled “Engineering Minds and Votes: The IRGC’s Baqiatallah Headquarters and Its Role in Iran’s Political Landscape,” highlights the Baqiatallah Cultural and Social Headquarters, a little-known branch of the IRGC. According to the report, this headquarters is tasked with developing and executing strategies to align Iran’s political and cultural environments with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s vision of an Islamic society. The Islamic Republic insists elections in Iran are conducted in a fair and transparent manner. Authored by UANI’s Kasra Aarabi and Saeid Golkar, the report reveals that since its establishment in 2019, the Baqiatallah Headquarters has been at the forefront of election manipulation and societal control, operating largely unnoticed within Iran’s political framework.
Day Before Iran Presidential Elections, US Imposes Fresh Sanctions | StratNews Global
A day before the Presidential elections in Iran on Friday, the US issued fresh sanctions against the country in response to “continued nuclear escalations.” “Over the past month, Iran has announced steps to further expand its nuclear program in ways that have no credible peaceful purpose,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement Thursday. “We remain committed to never letting Iran obtain a nuclear weapon, and we are prepared to use all elements of national power to ensure that outcome.” […] “Expect a lot of misreporting on Iran’s “elections” tomorrow in Western media. From the false “hardline-reformist” narrative to talks of “golden opportunities.” Let’s be clear: there are no free or fair elections in the totalitarian Islamic Republic,” (Interview with UANI Director of IRGC Research Kasra Aarabi cited in article)
[…] Kasra Aarabi, research director at nonprofit United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), told The Sun the organisation uncovered a shadowy arm of the IRGC that has been hidden for at least five years. UANI has exposed the Baqiatallah Headquarters in a new report, a "virtually unknown" organisation serving as an offshoot of Iran's brutal Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Kasra, who investigates the hideous crimes of the IRGC, said the newly discovered HQ relies on those agents known as the “Middle Ring” to carry out their bidding. The end goal is to achieve Khamenei's ideal "Islamic society" and "Islamic government" - policing people's thoughts and actions. Kasra told The Sun: “What we’ve got here is evidence for the first time that reveals a shadowy branch of the Revolutionary Guard that has never really been properly exposed.” Election rigging in Iran, Kasra explains, has hit "unprecedented levels" over the past five years and has happened in "a very smooth and orderly fashion". He told us: "That's because the IRGC Baqiatallah HQ has been designed for election engineering." The regime's Guardian Council - made up of Islamist hardliners - approved just six candidates out of 84 original names for the election today. They include a nuclear negotiator, an IRGC commander, the mayor of Tehran and an apparent "reformist" politician, UANI reports.
Revealed: The Shadowy Wing Of The IRGC Rigging Iran’s Presidential Vote | The Jewish Chronicle
Britain should sanction a shadowy wing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps responsible for rigging Iran’s elections, a new report has argued. Research from the United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) policy group based on original files obtained from the Islamic regime has revealed that the Baqiatallah Headquarters are behind efforts to ensure Iran’s clerical regime maintain control over the nation’s presidential selection. Triggered after the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash last month, the poll is being held today. It is being contested by conservative frontrunners Saeed Jalili and Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, former heart surgeon and reformer Massoud Pezeshkian, who has criticised Iran’s morality police, and former prosecutor Mostafa Pourmohammadi. Just six candidates, two of whom later dropped out, were permitted to run out of more than 80 applicants screened before the campaign by the hardline Guardian Council. While more than 61 million Iranians are eligible to vote, millions are expected to boycott the poll over expectations that it will not be a fair vote. Previously a clumsy process, prior efforts at election rigging by the IRGC triggered public outrage and protests, including the 2009 Green Movement in which demonstrators demanded the removal of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad from office.
Iran’s Regime Facing Crisis As Only Moderate Candidate On Ballot Takes Lead In Polls | Express
The Iranian regime may have shot itself in the foot as the only moderate presidential candidate took a surprise lead in the polls hours before the beginning of the elections. Masoud Pezeshkian, a surgeon with reformist leanings, topped a survey released on Thursday by Iran's government-funded ISPA with 33.1 per cent of the vote. […] Yet, IRGC officials claimed to the Telegraph that the regime approved Mr Pezeshkian's candidacy only to ensure that liberals "feel they are in the game" and secure a higher turnout. Jason Brodsky, policy director of the advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran, also said: "There is an attempt by the regime to utilise him in a way that will generate turnout and try to legitimise an illegitimate election." More than 61.5 million Iranians aged over 18 are eligible to vote on Friday - but many are expected to boycott the election as they believe it will be manipulated by the regime.
NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM
As Iran Picks A President, A Nuclear Shift: Open Talk About Building The Bomb | The New York Times
With the rest of the world distracted by wars in Gaza and Ukraine, Iran has moved closer than ever to the ability to produce several nuclear weapons, dramatically bolstering the speed at which it can produce nuclear fuel in recent weeks inside a facility buried so deep that it is all but impervious to bunker-busting bombs. The sharp technological upgrade goes hand in hand with another worrisome change: For the first time, some members of Iran’s ruling elite are dropping the country’s decades-old insistence that its nuclear program is entirely for peaceful purposes. Instead, they are publicly beginning to embrace the logic of possessing the bomb, arguing that recent missile exchanges with Israel underscore the need for a far more powerful deterrent. In interviews with a dozen American, European, Iranian and Israeli officials and with outside experts, the cumulative effect of this surge appears clear: Iran has cemented its role as a “threshold” nuclear state, walking right up to the line of building a weapon without stepping over it.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
US Imposes Fresh Sanctions On Iran Over Apparent Nuclear Escalations | The Guardian
The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, has announced fresh sanctions against Iran’s petroleum sector in response to what he described as an expansion of the country’s nuclear programme which has provoked renewed fears that it is preparing to build an atomic bomb. The embargoes – on three unnamed entities involved in the transport of Iranian petroleum or petrochemical products – were announced amid a chorus of warnings of a renewed conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Iran’s proxy Hezbollah, the powerful Shia group that dominates Lebanon. In a statement on Thursday, Blinken said Iran had expanded its uranium enrichment programme in the past month “in ways that have no credible peaceful purpose”. Under the new sanctions, 11 vessels associated with the three embargoed organisations would be designated as “blocked property”.
US Imposes New Sanctions On Iran Over Its Nuclear Escalations | Iran International
The United States on Thursday imposed new Iran-related sanctions in response to Tehran's "nuclear escalations and lack of cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog." The sanctions come in response to Iran’s “continued nuclear escalations and failure to cooperate with the IAEA,” according to the US Treasury Department and Secretary of State Antony Blinken. The sanctions have targeted three UAE-based companies linked to Iran’s petroleum and petrochemical trade including Al Anchor Ship Management FZE, Almanac Ship Management LLC, and Sea Route Ship Management FZE as well as 11 vessels connected to them, as per the Treasury Department website. "Over the past month, Iran has announced steps to further expand its nuclear program in ways that have no credible peaceful purpose. Iran’s actions to increase its enrichment capacity are all the more concerning in light of Iran’s continued failure to cooperate with the IAEA and statements by Iranian officials suggesting potential changes to Iran’s nuclear doctrine," said Blinken in a statement on Thursday.
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
Iran’s Election Overshadowed By Economic And Regional Turmoil | Bloomberg
Maryam, a 37-year-old fitness instructor in Tehran, used to put her disdain for Iranian politicians to one side for elections on the basis her vote could help to bring about change. This year, she says she has “zero” interest. “In every corner of this country, wherever you look, there’s nothing to be optimistic about,” she said from her home in the Iranian capital. “Prices get higher and higher by the day. On top of that, they make things more difficult with the hejab — confiscating your car, forcing you to report to the police or to courts, making you pay hefty fines.” Maryam was referring to the Islamic head covering that’s mandatory for women in Iran. The rule was the target of widespread demonstrations in 2022 following the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, a young woman arrested for allegedly flouting strict Islamic dress codes.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS
Iran Election Pits Engagement With West Against More Confrontation | Wall Street Journal
Iran’s presidential election on Friday will decide not only who leads a country increasingly antagonistic to the West but also help shape succession plans for the next supreme leader and indicate whether Iranians are giving up on their system of Islamic governance. The election pits a reformist candidate leading in the polls, Masoud Pezeshkian, who favors re-engaging with the West, against several hard-liners who want to deepen Iran’s relationships with Russia and China, fortify its alliance of anti-Israel militias and forge ahead with its nuclear program. There is no clear favorite, and there would be a runoff between the two top vote-getters if no one wins a majority. The election was sparked by the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash last month. Raisi, a hard-line cleric serving his first term, was viewed as a contender to succeed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is 85 years old and in poor health. Though no one outside a small circle in Iran is privy to succession talks, Iran analysts said Raisi’s death removed a safe choice.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
Iranians Vote In Presidential Election With Limited Choices | Reuters
Iranians voted on Friday for a new president following the death of Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash, choosing from a tightly controlled group of four candidates loyal to the supreme leader at a time of growing public frustration and Western pressure. The election coincides with escalating regional tension due to war between Israel and Iran's allies Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as increased Western pressure on Iran over its fast-advancing nuclear programme. While the election is unlikely to bring a major shift in the Islamic Republic's policies, its outcome could influence the succession to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's 85-year-old supreme leader, in power since 1989. Khamenei called for a high turnout to offset a legitimacy crisis fuelled by public discontent over economic hardship and curbs on political and social freedom. "The durability, strength, dignity and reputation of the Islamic Republic depend on people's presence," Khamenei told state television after casting his vote. "High turnout is a definite necessity."
After A Testy Campaign In Tense Times, Iranians Vote For President | The New York Times
After a testy campaign that featured strong attacks on the government by virtually all the candidates over the economy, internet restrictions and harsh enforcement of the hijab law on women, Iran was holding elections on Friday to pick a president. The vote comes at a perilous time for the country, with the incoming president facing a cascade of challenges, including discontent and divisions at home, an ailing economy and a volatile region that has taken Iran to the brink of war twice this year. With the race coming down to a three-way battle between two conservative candidates and a reformist, many analysts predict that none of them will achieve the necessary 50 percent of the votes, necessitating a runoff on July 5 between the reformist candidate and the leading conservative. That outcome may be avoided if one of the leading conservative candidates withdraws from the race, but in a bitter public feud, neither Gen. Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf, a former commander in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and a pragmatic technocrat, nor Saeed Jalili, a hard-liner, has budged.
Iran Votes For A New President As The Country Faces Multiple Crises | The Washington Post
Iranians are headed to the polls Friday for a snap election to choose a new president, with a slate of mostly conservative candidates seeking to replace hard-line leader Ebrahim Raisi after he died last month in a helicopter crash. The vote comes as Iran copes with multiple crises, including an ailing economy and tensions with Israel. Raisi, a protégé of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, is the second Iranian president to die while in office since the Islamic Revolution in 1979. For Iran’s ruling clerics, a smooth, predictable election with high voter turnout is important both for the regime’s stability and its legitimacy. Once voting was underway Friday, state television in Iran broadcast images of long lines outside busy polling stations across the country. Khamenei was shown casting his ballot in Tehran. “Some are undecided,” he told reporters, apparently addressing reports that many Iranians will sit out the vote. “There is no justification for being undecided… the continuity of the Islamic Republic depends on people’s turnout and participation.”
IRANIAN REGIONAL AGGRESSION
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday warned visiting former US generals and admirals that Iran hopes to topple Middle Eastern regimes such as Jordan and Saudi Arabia, and that the first step to stopping their plan was to defeat Hamas. At a meeting in Tel Aviv’s Defense Ministry headquarters, Netanyahu told the delegation sent by the Jewish Institute for National Security of America that the ongoing “seven-front” conflict was being managed by Israel’s arch-foe Iran, which sought to conquer its regional neighbors, namely Jordan. “Their goal is to have a combined ground offensive from various fronts, coupled with a combined missile bombardment. We’ve been given an opportunity to scuttle it,” Netanyahu said. “The first requirement is to cut that hand, Hamas.” “The people who did this thing to us are not going to be there,” he pledged, in an apparent reference to the October 7 massacre, and the ongoing attacks against Israel by Iranian proxies across the region. “We face a long battle — I don’t think it’s that long — but we’ll get rid of them.”
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
Israel And Hezbollah Lurch Closer To War | Bloomberg
North Israel is a series of ghost towns — abandoned houses and scorched forests from Hezbollah missiles. Parts of south Lebanon have been hit so hard by Israeli bombs that they’ve been reduced to rubble. Tens of thousands of residents have been driven from homes on both sides. A steady, if ugly, tit-for-tat between Israel and Hezbollah since the October outbreak of the Gaza war has been shifting into something more alarming. Record numbers of Hezbollah projectiles — some 900 — have hit Israel this month and its chief says he’s overwhelmed by volunteers ready to fight Israel “without any rules, restraints or ceiling.” Israel, meanwhile, is carrying out deeper and more destructive attacks in Lebanon and its northern military command has just approved a battle plan for the country. While Iran-backed Hezbollah and Israel say they do not want a full-blown war, concern is higher than ever they’re stumbling into one — or will deliberately start one. Israelis advocating it believe that such a conflict could be kept short, a matter of weeks. Others are far more pessimistic.
GULF STATES, YEMEN, & IRAN
The U.N. Security Council on Thursday approved a resolution demanding Yemen’s Houthi rebels halt all attacks on ships and urged that the disruption to maritime security in a critical Middle East waterway be urgently addressed. The resolution made no mention that the Iran-backed rebels claim they are staging the attacks because of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. The resolution, which also extended the requirement that U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres report monthly on the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, was approved by a 12-0 vote, with Russia, China and Algeria abstaining. Shipping has reduced drastically through the route crucial to Asian, Middle East and European markets in a campaign the Houthis say will continue as long as the war rages in the Gaza Strip. The resolution condemns the Houthis’ continuing attacks, which the rebels say are aimed at ending the war in Gaza, now in its ninth month — emphasizing the need to address root causes, “including the conflicts contributing to regional tensions and the disruption to maritime security.”