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Iran will hold a runoff presidential election pitting a little-known reformist against a hard-line former nuclear negotiator after results released Saturday showed the lowest-ever poll turnout in the Islamic Republic’s history. More than 60% of voters cast no ballot in the race that saw reformist Masoud Pezeshkian best Saeed Jalili, who competed alongside two other hard-liners. With Jalili now alone in facing the cardiac surgeon, Pezeshkian’s campaign would need to draw voters to the July 5 runoff in an election they’ve otherwise not taken part in as public anger hardens following years of Iran facing economic hardships and mass protests under its Shiite theocracy. “Let’s look at it as a protest in its own right: A very widespread choice to reject what’s on offer – both the candidates and the system,” said Sanam Vakil, the director of Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa program. “That tells us a lot about public opinion and apathy, frustration. It sort of brings it all together.”
Iran Heads To Presidential Runoff Pitting Reformist Against Conservative | The Washington Post
Iran’s presidential election is headed for a runoff between an archconservative and a pro-reform candidate, after none of the contenders secured a majority of the votes, the Ministry of Interior said Saturday. Reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian came out on top, followed by hard-liner Saeed Jalili, a former chief nuclear negotiator, whose support among conservatives was split with the third-place candidate, parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Official figures from Friday’s election showed a historically low turnout at just 40 percent, as an economic crisis and worsening political repression feed widespread public apathy. The snap presidential poll was called last month after President Ebrahim Raisi, a hard line conservative, was killed in a helicopter crash. Iran’s electoral law requires that any one candidate must win at least 50 percent of the vote to assume the presidency. The runoff will be held July 5.
Iran Warns Of ‘Obliterating War’ If Israel Launches An Offensive In Lebanon | The New York Times
Iran has threatened an “obliterating war” if Israel launches a full-scale attack in Lebanon, as diplomats work to prevent tensions between Israel and the Lebanese militia Hezbollah, which is backed by Tehran, from escalating into an all-out conflict. In a post on X late Friday, Iran’s mission to the United Nations said that “all options,” including the involvement of Iran-backed armed groups across the Middle East, “are on the table.” Chief among those groups is Hezbollah, a powerful militia that dominates southern Lebanon. At the same time, Iran dismissed warnings from Israeli officials that Israel could invade Lebanon as “psychological warfare.” Enemies for decades, Israel and Hezbollah have frequently exchanged fire along Israel’s northern border. Since the war in Gaza began last October, Hezbollah and the Israeli military have intensified cross-border strikes. Israeli officials have warned for months that Israel might invade Lebanon if Hezbollah did not pull its forces back from the border area. Hezbollah has also threatened to launch an incursion into Israel.
UANI IN THE NEWS
How Iran Defied The U.S. To Become An International Power | The Wall Street Journal
[…] Tehran’s long-term planning is also evident in its domestic efforts to defend the clerical rule against its own people. For the past five years, a secretive unit under the Revolutionary Guard, known as the Baqiatallah Headquarters, has spearheaded the regime’s efforts to push back against secularism and what it sees as corrosive Western influence, according to a new report by researchers at United Against Nuclear Iran, a U.S.-based advocacy group. The unit, headed by a former Revolutionary Guard commander, imposes Islamic dress codes and engineers elections, among other tasks. It aims to mobilize its own religious civil society of four million loyal young Iranians as a way to implement the ideological and cultural policies of the clerical leadership, bypassing the bureaucracy of the elected government, according to the researchers, drawing on original material from the Revolutionary Guard.
How Iran Is Growing Rich Despite Its Status As A Pariah Nation | New York Post
[…] Recent figures by watchdog United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) found that since 2021, Iran sold a record $90 billion worth of US-sanctioned oil to countries like China and India. “China has kept the Iranian regime coffers full through oil sales,” said UANI policy director Jason Brodsky. The $90 billion of oil sales have real-world impact, Brodsky adds, “as they resource Tehran’s proxy and partner network’s lethal attacks against Israel and US interests.” Chaos in the Middle East is likely to persist as Tehran’s oil revenues soar unabated. Hezbollah, on the brink of war with Israel, receives $700 million a year from its key patron in Tehran, according to Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. Meanwhile, Iran’s annual funding for Hamas last year surged from $100 million to about $350 million, according to an Israeli security source. Tehran’s oil revenues impact America directly; 32 of the 1,200 people killed by Tehran-sponsored Hamas terrorists on Oct. 7 were American citizens. Iran-backed militias in Iraq, Syria and Jordan also launched deadly attacks on American forces more than 170 times since last October.
Iran’s plan to run absentee voter ballot stations in more than 30 U.S. cities for the first round of its presidential election had mixed results, a VOA investigation has found. […] “The Islamic Republic and its agents understand that the regime is deeply unpopular in the Iranian diaspora, whose members are channeling the voices of their Iran-based compatriots calling for regime change,” said Jason Brodsky, policy director of U.S. advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran, in a VOA interview. “The regime and its agents fear the Iranian diaspora because of its organizing power, so they want to keep this U.S. voting activity as quiet as possible to prevent embarrassing situations in which their fellow Iranians denounce the election for the sham that it is,” Brodsky said.
In The Shadow Of The Israel-Hamas War, Iran Steps Up Its Nuclear Program | Le Figaro
Kasra Aarabi, Director of IRGC Research at the UANI and former adviser to Tony Blair, describes this phenomenon as a "dumbification" of the regime, with promotions based solely on ideology. On the international stage, the United States appears to have reduced its presence and influence, which Aarabi said coincides with a weakening of its deterrent power in the Middle East. This situation is all the more critical as Iran is supported by Russia, with whom it has established a strategic relationship, exchanging technology and intelligence, and even engaging in the supply of military equipment to support Russian efforts in Ukraine. The Biden administration, rather reluctant to respond to Iranian provocations, has been criticized for its initial attempt to block a United Nations resolution to remind Iran of its commitments. This cautious posture by the United States is seen as a disengagement that could encourage the Iranian regime to pursue its nuclear ambitions.
Wiesenthal Urges Körber NGO To Sever Ties With Alleged Iranian Terrorist | The Jerusalem Post
The walls appear to be closing in on the Germany-based Körber Foundation over criticism of its promotion of an alleged antisemitic mass murderer, Seyed Hossein Mousavian, who worked for the Islamic Republic of Iran. Approximately 40 German-Iranians and Germans protested on Thursday in front of the Hamburg-based Körber Foundation because the controversial think tank hosted Mousavian in May at a political breakfast. […] Jason Brodsky, an Iran expert and policy director of the US-based United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), told the Post “I think Körber’s hosting of Hossein Mousavian is a symptom of a larger problem in the German business community. Many still adhere to the fantasy that trade ties with Iran will moderate the regime. This theory has been repeatedly proven wrong. German companies should not be doing business with the Islamic Republic while it is holding German nationals hostage and plotting terror attacks throughout the European Union.”
Iran’s Elections Engineered By Covert IRGC Arm, New Report Says | Iran International
A covert arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) has been rigging elections and manipulating Iran's political landscape through a clandestine network of cultural and political operations, according to a new analysis by United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI). Known as the Baqiatallah Headquarters, this apparatus works closely with the Intelligence Ministry to strategically influence the current snap election to replace former President Ebrahim Raisi, the NGO reports. UANI says its report marks the first clear exposure of these methods of electoral manipulation. Titled “Engineering Minds and Votes,” the 34-page report is based on original material from inside the IRGC's Baqiatallah Headquarters, including lectures, textbooks, written presentations, and speeches. Kasra Aarabi, one of the study's authors, notes that the group was established in 2019 with the explicit objective of realizing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s vision of an "ideal Islamic government and society."
Iran’s Oil Exports Hit A 5-Year High In 2024 | Iran International
Vortexa says that an increase in Iran’s crude production, higher demand from China and a net increase in the size of Islamic Republic’s dark fleet have helped facilitate its oil export growth. The United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) has identified 383 vessels suspected to be part of a clandestine “ghost fleet.” So-called ghost ships are vessels that disguise their ownership and movements in order to facilitate breaches of sanctions. Considering Iran's export volumes of oil, gas condensate, and mazut, along with higher prices in the international oil markets, the country’s revenues should have exceeded $14.5 billion in spring 2024. However, it only garnered $12 billion. The 20% shortfall indicates Iran’s lower selling price to secure buyers who take a risk in the face of US sanctions. Chinese refineries are the main buyers of Iran’s illicit oil shipments that middlemen mix with cargos from other countries and unload in China as imports from Singapore and other sources.
NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM
Iran Installs Four Of Eight New Centrifuges Planned At Fordow, IAEA Report Says | The Jerusalem Post
Iran has so far installed four out of the eight clusters of advanced IR-6 centrifuges it said earlier this month it would quickly set up at its Fordow uranium-enrichment plant, the UN atomic watchdog said in a report on Friday seen by Reuters. "Since the Director General's previous quarterly report, the Agency has verified that Iran has installed four of the aforementioned eight IR-6 cascades in Unit 1 at FFEP (Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant)," the International Atomic Energy Agency said in the confidential report to member states.
IAEA Delays Ruling On Disputed Iran Atom Aid | Reuters
The U.N. nuclear watchdog, split over Iran's bid for aid for a project the West fears could yield bomb-grade plutonium, has put off a ruling until Thursday but is likely to block such assistance, diplomats said on Tuesday. They said Western and developing nations failed to reach consensus on Iran's request at a technical meeting of the 35-nation International Atomic Energy Agency's board of governors, ahead of a regular board plenary later this week. "It's become an issue between nuclear haves and have-nots," said a senior IAEA diplomat. "This football is being kicked to the full board of governors because it's now political." The United States and the European Union urged board delegates on Monday to deny Iran's request for agency expertise to ensure the Arak heavy water reactor under construction meets IAEA safety standards. Western envoys said the Arak bid should be blocked because of Iran's record of evading IAEA non-proliferation inspections and defiance of U.N. orders to stop enriching uranium. World powers are mulling sanctions on Iran at the UN Security Council.
TERRORISM & EXTREMISM
US Struggles To Deter Houthi Threat As Crisis Spirals | The Hill
After half a year of conflict, the U.S. has failed to deter the Houthi rebels from attacking merchant ships in the Red Sea as the Yemeni fighters continue to sink commercial boats and disrupt global trade, posing an increasingly difficult challenge for the far larger American military. Repeated U.S. bombardments on Houthi positions have done little to stop the Iran-backed group that has managed to employ advanced weapons like surface-water drones and anti-ship ballistic missiles to fluster U.S. troops. And they have kept up the pace of attacks with more than 190 drone and missile launches since the effort began in late October. While the U.S. has thwarted most Houthi attempts to damage merchant ships, the Yemeni fighters have now sunk or heavily damaged at least four commercial vessels, along with hijacking one. They have also killed four commercial sailors.
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
Ahmadreza Jalali Starts Hunger Strike Over Exclusion From Prisoner Swap | Iran Wire
Ahmadreza Jalali, an Iranian-Swedish academic on death row in Iran, has gone on hunger strike in Tehran's Evin prison. The strike, which began on June 25, comes in response to his exclusion from a recent prisoner swap between Iran and Sweden. Jalali's wife, Vida Mehrannia, announced the hunger strike on social media, saying, "My husband, who faces imminent execution by the Islamic Republic, started a hunger strike on Tuesday, June 25, in protest of not being included in the recent prisoner exchange between Iran and Sweden." The June 15 prisoner swap saw the release of Hamid Nouri, a former Iranian official convicted and jailed in Sweden for war crimes and mass executions during the 1988 government killings of political prisoners in Iran. In exchange, Tehran freed two Swedish citizens, Johan Floderus, a diplomat, and Saeed Azizi. Jalali's exclusion from this exchange has raised concerns among human rights advocates and his family.
Women Without Hijab Barred From Voting In Iran | Iran Wire
Contrary to the organizers' previous promises, women not adhering to the standard dress code of the Islamic Republic were barred from voting in the presidential election. This contradicts the statement made by the Guardian Council's spokesperson three months ago during the parliamentary election. "The right to vote has not been revoked in any law, and it cannot be revoked even by the court," referring to women who would appear without the mandatory hijab. Reports surfaced on social media about women being prevented from entering polling stations without hijab during the first round of the 14th presidential election. Fariba, a 32-year-old woman, was among those barred from entering the polling station. "I went to a school to vote. Although I don't usually wear a hijab after the Mahsa protests, I wore a shawl and a coat that day to ensure I could vote," she told IranWire. However, she was denied entry due to her "thin" coat.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS
Iran Election Pits Engagement With West Against More Confrontation | The Wall Street Journal
Iran’s presidential election on Friday will decide not only who leads a country increasingly antagonistic to the West but also help shape succession plans for the next supreme leader and indicate whether Iranians are giving up on their system of Islamic governance. The election pits a reformist candidate leading in the polls, Masoud Pezeshkian, who favors re-engaging with the West, against several hard-liners who want to deepen Iran’s relationships with Russia and China, fortify its alliance of anti-Israel militias and forge ahead with its nuclear program. There is no clear favorite, and there would be a runoff between the two top vote-getters if no one wins a majority. The election was sparked by the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash last month. Raisi, a hard-line cleric serving his first term, was viewed as a contender to succeed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is 85 years old and in poor health. Though no one outside a small circle in Iran is privy to succession talks, Iran analysts said Raisi’s death removed a safe choice.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
Reformist Reaches Runoff In Iran’s Presidential Election | The New York Times
A reformist candidate critical of an Iranian law that requires women to wear head scarves will compete next week against a hard-line conservative in a runoff election for the country’s presidency, state media said on Saturday, following a special vote after the previous leader was killed last month in a helicopter crash.
A second round of voting, which will pit the reformist, Masoud Pezeshkian, against Saeed Jalili, an ultraconservative former nuclear negotiator, will take place on July 5. The runoff was in part the result of low voter turnout and a crowded field of four candidates, three of whom competed for the conservative vote. Iranian law requires a winner to receive more than 50 percent of all votes cast. Participation in another round of voting will strain the energies of an already apathetic electorate, unsatisfied by their leaders at a time of international and domestic turmoil. Iran’s economy is cratering under punishing Western sanctions, its citizens’ freedoms are increasingly curtailed and its foreign policy is largely shaped by hard-line leaders.
With Voter Discontent High, Turnout Appears To Plummet In Iran | The New York Times
As voting proceeded in Iran’s presidential election on Friday, early estimates from campaign officials showed that only about 40 percent of eligible voters appeared to be casting ballots. The low turnout was a potential blow to the ruling clerics, who made voter participation a marker of their legitimacy and had hoped to achieve 50 percent turnout, compared with 70 percent in past presidential elections. Hafez Hakami, a campaign manager for the lone reformist candidate, Dr. Masoud Pezeshkian, confirmed in a telephone interview after the polls closed that turnout was below expectations. “We were really expecting participation of over 50 percent,” he said, “but unfortunately the social mood for voting was still heavy, people could not be convinced to show up at the ballot box.” Having endured years of economic struggle and sharp restrictions on personal and social freedoms, many Iranians say they have grown tired of empty promises made by politicians who are unwilling or unable to deliver them. For some voters, the refusal to cast a ballot was the only way of rejecting the government.
A Clash Of Visions Dominates Iran’s Presidential Election | Bloomberg
As Iran holds a presidential election to replace Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash last month, the issue of sanctions is a fault line that runs through its politics. Of the four men sparring for the post, the lone reformist, Masoud Pezeshkian, believes Iran must reengage with the West if it’s going to have any chance of convincing the US to lift sanctions that have blighted the country’s finances in some form, on and off, since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. That, in his view, is the only way Iran, a country of nearly 90 million people, can fix its broken economy and reintegrate it into the global system. The Islamic Republic has been largely cut off from global financial markets for years. Even the 2015 nuclear deal with the West that briefly lifted sanctions — the US pulled out in 2018 — didn’t last long enough for Iran to enter the global economic fold or receive any meaningful investment.
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
Israel And Iran Exchange Threats Over Escalation In Lebanon | The National
Israel and Iran exchanged threats at the weekend, each warning any escalation in the fighting between Israeli forces and Hezbollah would be met with a strong response. Israel's Foreign Minister Israel Katz said on Saturday that Tehran's threats made it worthy of destruction. “A regime that threatens destruction deserves to be destroyed,” Mr Katz said in a post on X. He added that Israel would act with full force against Hezbollah if it does not stop firing rockets at Israel and retreat from the border areas. Iran's UN mission said on Friday that if Israel launches a “full-scale military aggression” in Lebanon, an “obliterating war will ensue.” The mission accused Israel of engaging in “psychological warfare” by issuing warnings of attacks on Lebanon. Iran-backed Hezbollah began attacking Israel shortly after Israel launched a war in Gaza on October 7 in response to a Hamas-led attack.
Iran-Israel Threats Intensify As Large Middle East War Looms | Newsweek
Warnings between Israeli and Iranian officials have intensified in nature as fears mount throughout the Middle East and beyond over the possibility of a larger-scale conflict erupting due to worsening clashes across the Israel-Lebanon border and the still-raging war in the Gaza Strip. "The IDF is prepared for a variety of security scenarios in all areas, and will continue to protect the State of Israel from the various threats," an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson told Newsweek on Sunday. The comments came two days after the Iranian Mission to the United Nations (U.N.) shared with Newsweek and published on X, formerly Twitter, one of the Islamic Republic's gravest warnings yet over the deteriorating security situation. "Albeit Iran deems as psychological warfare the Zionist regime's propaganda about intending to attack Lebanon, should it embark on full-scale military aggression, an obliterating war will ensue," the Iranian Mission said Friday. "All options, incl. the full involvement of all Resistance Fronts, are on the table."
MISCELLANEOUS
Who Is In Charge Of Iran? | BBC
Iranians are going to the polls on Friday to elect a new president, following the death in May of the former incumbent, Ebrahim Raisi. However, the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is the person who really wields power in Iran. What happens in the presidential election? The first round of Iran's presidential election takes place on 28 June. There are 61.5 million eligible voters in a population of almost 90 million. There will be a run-off election on 5 July if no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote in the first round. The vote is to replace the hardliner Mr Raisi, who died on 19 May when the helicopter he was in crashed into a mountain in fog. The presidential candidates were heavily vetted, and many major politicians were barred from the race. Only six people were allowed to run, and two of those dropped out the day before the election. The front-runners are two conservatives - Saeed Jalili, a former international negotiator, and Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, the speaker of the parliament - and a 69-year-old heart surgeon called Massoud Pezeshkian, who is the one reformist in the race.