TOP STORIES
Biden Wants To Be Tough With Russia And Iran—But Wants Low Gas Prices Too | The Wall Street Journal
The Biden administration wants to keep gas prices stable ahead of the election by encouraging oil to flow into global markets. The effort has run square into another priority: being tough on adversaries Russia, Iran and Venezuela. The policy has led to softer-than-expected sanctions on major oil producers, according to diplomats, former government officials and energy-industry players briefed by current officials. A case in point arrived on Tuesday, when the U.S. levied fresh sanctions against Iran. The measures affect a fraction of the country’s oil exports and are unlikely to gum up global markets, analysts said. “The president has wanted to do everything that he could to make sure that American consumers have the lowest price possible at the pump, as it affects families’ daily lives,” said a senior administration official. Though tensions between Iran and the U.S. have ratcheted up since the Oct. 7 attacks on Israel by Tehran-backed Hamas, exports from Iran surpassed 1.5 million barrels a day this year starting in February, substantially more than at the start of the Biden presidency. Most of that oil is bought by small Chinese refineries at discounted prices.
Two candidates in Iran’s presidential election withdrew from the race as the country prepared Thursday for the upcoming vote, an effort by hard-liners to coalesce around a unity candidate in the polls to replace the late President Ebrahim Raisi. Amirhossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi, 53, dropped his candidacy and urged other candidates to do the same “so that the front of the revolution will be strengthened,” the state-run IRNA news agency reported late Wednesday night. Ghazizadeh Hashemi served as one of Raisi’s vice presidents and as the head of the Foundation of Martyrs and Veterans Affairs. He ran in the 2021 presidential election and received some 1 million votes, coming in last place. On Thursday, Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani also withdrew, as he did previously in the 2021 election in which Raisi was voted into office.
Iran-Allied Militants Claim An Attack Targeting The Israeli Port City Of Eilat | Associated Press
An Iranian-backed umbrella group known as the Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed an attack targeting the southern Israeli port city of Eilat on Wednesday. The militants are allied with Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who are suspected of attacking a ship in the Gulf of Aden the same day. Shipping has reduced drastically through the route crucial to Asian, Middle East and European markets in a campaign the Houthis say will continue as long as the Israel-Hamas war rages in the Gaza Strip. International criticism is growing over Israel’s campaign against Hamas as Palestinians face severe and widespread hunger. The eight-month war has largely cut off the flow of food, medicine and basic goods to Gaza, and people there are now totally dependent on aid. The top United Nations court has concluded there is a “plausible risk of genocide” in Gaza — a charge Israel strongly denies.
UANI IN THE NEWS
The unexpected death of President Ebrahim Raisi on May 19th has opened many questions for the political future of the Islamic Republic of Iran, particularly regarding succession to key offices. Now, the regime’s “election circus” is underway, and the Guardian Council has approved six candidates for president. Given that Raisi’s political career was based on an unquestioning obedience to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and his connections with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the regime will almost certainly elevate a candidate who will maintain this patron-client relationship, such as Saeed Jalili or Mohammad Ghalibaf. Raisi’s rise within the regime was not enabled by professional qualifications, administrative skill, or through nurturing a base of support. Rather, Khamenei hand-picked Raisi for advancement at every stage, rewarding the latter’s ideological loyalty and record as a brutal regime enforcer. Raisi’s involvement in the mass-execution of dissidents in the late 1980s catapulted him to significant government positions under Khamenei’s patronage, including that of prosecutor-general (attorney general) and of chief justice. Given this relationship, small wonder that Raisi was a subservient president who advanced Khamenei’s efforts to personalize power within the regime.
NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM
PM Netanyahu Calls To Reestablish Joint Working Teams On Iran's Nuclear Program | The Jerusalem Post
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu instructed about two weeks ago to reestablish joint working teams of the defense establishment, the Foreign Ministry, and the intelligence community on the topic of Iran's nuclear program, according to three senior Israeli officials. In recent months, Israeli intelligence received information that Iran is carrying out activities related to the development of nuclear weapons, raising serious concerns, which would allow it to "shorten distances" if Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei orders a breakthrough to an atomic bomb, according to senior Israeli officials.
A new report from an Iranian resistance group alleges that the Islamist regime has attempted to dodge U.S. sanctions on its nuclear programs by shifting personnel and resources to a university closely associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). "Ever since The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) exposed the Iranian regime’s previously undisclosed nuclear program in 2002 … the regime has persistently thwarted the IAEA’s efforts to uncover the full scope of its nuclear weapons ambitions," Alireza Jafarzadeh, deputy director of the Washington office of the NCRI told Fox News Digital. "Our revelations have shown that Tehran’s nuclear program has always been about building the nuclear bomb, and it is run by the IRGC," he argued. "The weaponization part of the nuclear program has not only remained intact but has expanded and enhanced with no meaningful scrutiny." Jafarzadeh first revealed the details of Iran’s nuclear program in 2002.
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
Candidates Clash Over Past Protests And Corruption In Iran's Final Election Debate | Iran Wire
The final round of Iran's presidential election debates was held on Tuesday, centering on the theme of "Government Efficiency." The debate, which addressed "cases on the table" and "people's expectations from the 14th government," marked a departure from previous formats by excluding expert questions. Candidates were asked to outline their first actions if elected and provide timelines for achieving their goals. However, the debate lacked direct exchanges between candidates or critiques of each other's positions, with most reading from prepared statements. Amirhossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi promised immediate measures to alleviate public concerns alongside 14 basic solutions. Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani pledged to reduce petrol prices, tackle smuggling, and address energy imbalances and environmental issues. He also reiterated his "golden subsidy" promise, claiming his plans would enrich over 90 per cent of the population.
Iranian Activists And Families Of Slain Protesters Join Election Boycott | Iran International
Several student organizations, women's and youth groups are adding their voices to the growing collective effort to boycott the upcoming presidential election in Iran. Under the banner of "The National Network Woman, Life, Freedom Revolution," the groups issued a collective statement, endorsing organized protests targeting the electoral process. Their initiative included “meeting with families of political prisoners, conducting nighttime chants with slogans in Iran" and advocating for the staging of demonstrations outside of Iranian embassies abroad. Their objective, they say, is to sustain the movement that was triggered in September 2022 following the death of Mahsa Jina Amini while in the custody of the so-called morality police. The state's subsequent killing of at least 550 protesters during its crackdown has been labeled a crime against humanity by a UN fact-finding mission.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS
Iran’s Presidential Candidates Agree On One Thing: Trump Is Coming | The New York Times
Throughout Iran’s presidential campaign, in debates, rallies and speeches, a singular presence has hovered: Donald J. Trump. To hear the six candidates tell it, the former president’s victory in the 2024 White House race is a foregone conclusion. The urgent question facing Iranian voters as they go to the polls on Friday, they say, is who is best suited to deal with him. They hardly ever mention President Biden, and they never bring up the many polls suggesting that the American election will be extremely close. Instead, Mr. Trump’s name is invoked again and again. “Wait and you will see what will happen when Trump comes,” one candidate, the cleric Mostafa Pourmohammadi, said during a recent televised debate. “We have to get ready for negotiations.” Another candidate, Alireza Zakani, Tehran’s mayor, accused his rivals at a debate of having “Trump-phobia,” insisting that only he could manage him. In one of Mr. Pourmohammadi’s campaign posters, he and Mr. Trump are eye to eye, staring each other down. “The person who can stand in front of Trump is me,” it reads.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
Hard-Liner Withdraws From Iran's Presidential Race | Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty
Amirhossein Qazizadeh Hashemi, one of the candidates in Iran's presidential vote to elect a successor to the late Ebrahim Raisi, has withdrawn from the race in order to cement support around a single hard-line candidate. Qazizadeh Hasehmi, one of Raisi's vice presidents, announced his withdrawal late on June 26, saying that his move was meant to "maintain the unity of the forces of the revolution." Raisi and other senior officials died in a helicopter crash on May 19. Five other candidates remain in the race, including Masud Pezeshkian, the only moderate reformist to run in the June 28 election.
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
Russia Says It Is Working On A Big Treaty With Iran | Reuters
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Wednesday that Moscow was working on what she called a big treaty with Iran. Her comment appeared to be a reference to a comprehensive bilateral cooperation agreement that is being negotiated between Tehran and Moscow. In January, Russia's Foreign Ministry said that a new interstate treaty reflecting the "unprecedented upswing" in Russia-Iran ties was in the final stages of being agreed.
Gazprom Signs Memo With Iran On Russian Gas Supplies | Reuters
Russian energy giant Gazprom (GAZP.MM), opens new tab has signed a memorandum with the National Iranian Gas Company (NIGC) to supply Russian pipeline gas to Iran, it said on Wednesday. No details from the memorandum, which was signed during a visit by Gazprom's head Alexei Miller to Iran at a ceremony attended by Iran's interim president Mohammad Mokhber, were revealed. Iran sits on the world's second-largest gas reserves after Russia, and Moscow has long sought to make inroads into its natural gas business. U.S. sanctions have hindered Iran's access to technology and slowed the development of its gas exports. Gazprom has seen its gas supplies to Europe, once the source of two-thirds of its gas sales revenue, plummeting to post-Soviet lows over the conflict in Ukraine. Last year it incurred losses of almost $7 billion, its first annual loss since 1999. In July 2022 Gazprom signed a memorandum of understanding on energy cooperation with the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) worth around $40 billion, but no concrete deals have emerged from that agreement.
Defeat, Deter And Dissuade: Israel’s Survival Strategy Against Iran And Its Proxies | The Hill
Defeat, deter and dissuade – that is how Israel manages its three-front war against Iran and its proxies. Tehran is the immortal head of this hydra. But Israel will have to eliminate its other two heads to get to it. Each front presents an existential threat to Jerusalem. Isolating the threats and defeating them sequentially is the best course of action. However, the narrative is not in Israel’s favor. Support from the Biden administration is waning. Meanwhile, Hezbollah is flexing. The leader of the Iranian-backed paramilitary organization, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, recently threatened Israel, stating that there would be “no rules and with no red lines” if all-out war erupts between Hezbollah and Israel. Last fall, Hamas made itself the most immediate threat to Israel. The terrorist group invaded Israel from Gaza, killing 1,200 people and taking another 250 hostage on October 7. But Hezbollah, the terrorist group in Lebanon, threatens Israel’s northern border with upwards of 150,000 rockets, missiles and drones and as many as 50,000 militants. Iran, through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, funds, trains, equips and directs its proxies to attack Israel and U.S. interests throughout the region, while trying to build a nuclear weapon in the background.
GULF STATES, YEMEN, & IRAN
Iran Claims Saudi Arabia Won't Let Iranian Pilgrims Vote | Al Monitor
Iran claimed on Wednesday that Saudi Arabia is not allowing Iranian pilgrims in the country to vote in the upcoming presidential election. The official Islamic Republic News Agency reported that Saudi authorities rejected Iran's request to allow 47,000 Iranian Hajj pilgrims in the kingdom to vote in Friday’s presidential election. Mohsen Eslami, spokesperson for Iran’s election authorities, said that the Iranian government has provided the necessary arrangements for the pilgrims to vote and that Iranian pilgrims have requested ballots, according to the agency. The Saudi government did not immediately comment. The Hajj is an annual pilgrimage made by Muslims to Mecca and other holy sites in Saudi Arabia. This year's season concluded on June 19. Iranian authorities did not say why the pilgrims are still in Saudi Arabia. What it means: Iran will hold presidential elections on Friday. The snap election was called following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash last month.
OTHER FOREIGN AFFAIRS
UK Labor Party Says Will Change Law To List IRGC As Terrorist | Iran International
The UK’s Labour Party intends to proscribe Iran’s Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist entity, if it wins the general election next month, according to a report by the British newspaper The Telegraph. The report comes in the wake of the IRGC designation in Canada, which was welcomed by the Iranian-Canadian community who have been pushing for this measure for a few years. The current UK government, led by the Conservative prime minister Rishi Sunak, has considered a similar move but decided against it on a number of occasions. Based on the Telegraph report, the leading figures in the Labor Party do not share the hesitation and would be willing to back a change in the law that would allow for the IRGC’s proscription. Yvette Cooper and David Lammy, picked to be the next Home and Foreign secretaries if Labor wins, are said to support the measure. The Labor Party’s 2024 manifesto includes an explicit reference to Iran’s IRGC, while criticizing the UK’s approach.