UANI Resource on P5+1 Negotiations with Iran
|
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
February 19, 2015 Phone: (212) 554-3296
UANI Resource on P5+1 Negotiations with Iran Facts Belie Claims that JPA Process Has Been Success
New York, NY - Today, United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is releasing a new resource analyzing key assertions about the purported success and potential outcomes of the JPA negotiating process.
Opinions about the efficacy of the nuclear negotiations with Iran (the JPA process) are informed by competing sets of answers to three key questions:
Is the Joint Plan of Action (JPA) process succeeding in rolling back Iran's nuclear program while enabling sanctions pressure on Iran to grow?
Are our Iranian regime negotiating partners, mainly President Rouhani and Foreign Minister Zarif, "moderates" who diverge from Supreme Leader Khamenei's hardline position?
Will the simple passage of additional sanctions measures - complete with delayed triggers, humanitarian carve-outs, and broad discretionary and waiver authority for the President - lead to war?
The answer to all three questions is "no":
Three Claims: True or False?
Is the JPA Process Working to Stop the Advancement of Iran's Nuclear Program & Is Sanctions Pressure Increasing?
The JPA has not halted progress on Iran's nuclear program. To the contrary, under the JPA, Iran's stockpile of nuclear material is increasing. Iran continues to conduct research and development, including on advanced centrifuges that are 24 times more efficient than the model Iran currently uses. Iran continues development of long-range ballistic missiles, which could deliver a nuclear payload, and President Rouhani also recently announced that Iran has started building two new nuclear power plants in collaboration with Russia.
Sanctions relief under the JPA has enabled Iran to return to positive economic growth after two years of recession, leading President Rouhani to proclaim that sanctions are "unraveling." Iran's currency has stabilized and domestic inflation has dropped significantly. This economic boost has given Iranian officials the confidence to believe they can walk away from negotiations without much harm. Meanwhile, with the momentum of sanctions halted, reputational and financial risk has clearly declined for multinational corporations-particularly in the energy and automotive sectors-that are publicly pursuing the renewal or expansion of their Iran business.
Are U.S. Negotiating Partners in Iran, Led By President Rouhani, Moderates That Will Alter Iranian Behavior?
The engagement with Iran has been justified in part by a belief that the Iranian regime contains moderate elements influential enough to make a final, comprehensive nuclear deal. Sanctions relief to Iran in addition to concessions in nuclear negotiations will sideline hardliners and incentivize and empower supposed moderates like President Hassan Rouhani to reach a final deal and temper extremist Iranian regime attitudes and behavior. This wishful thinking, however, does not comport with the reality of the regime's radicalism and its ongoing refusal to offer any reasonable compromise.
Much of what drives Iranian politics and decision-making is hatred of the West. The Iranian regime demonizes the U.S. as the "Great Satan," denies the Holocaust, pledges to wipe Israel off the map, and threatens to dominate America's Gulf allies. The regime's
raison d'être is resisting the West and exporting its radical, revolutionary ideology. Therefore, a severe cost must be imposed on the Iranian regime to compel it to roll back the nuclear program it has deemed a symbol of its resistance to the West.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei is the ultimate authority in Iran, and President Rouhani has acknowledged that Khamenei is the sole decision-maker on Iran's nuclear policy. Iran's nuclear negotiators must obey Khamenei's edicts, including the uncompromising "red lines" he has set, such as Iran obtaining a uranium enrichment capacity that is about 20 times the program's current processing ability. Furthermore, Khamenei has a particularly deep-seated hatred of the United States, which limits his willingness to come to any reasonable, negotiated compromise, much less a rapprochement.
President Rouhani is a longtime regime loyalist who enjoys a close personal relationship with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. During his long-running political career, Rouhani has held almost every top-level regime position. It is unsurprising then that Rouhani has been uncompromising on Iran's nuclear program given that "it has been central to his career" going back decades. While Rouhani came to power in 2013 on a platform of "moderation and prudence," his words ring hollow in the face of his government's continuation of Iran's sponsorship of terrorism, support for the brutal Assad regime, and increased rate of executions. And despite being known as the "diplomatic sheikh," Rouhani publicly uses extremist rhetoric like his predecessor, including calls of "Death to America" and referring to Israel as "the great Zionist Satan."
Will Sanctions Lead To War And Are Supporters of Sanctions Warmongers?
At the time of the signing of the JPA in November 2013, the Obama Administration indicated that renewed sanctions pressure would be implemented if Iran were unable to reach an agreement by the six month deadline. Instead, the JPA has been extended twice, continuing for more than 18 months, with further extensions possible. Alarmed by Iran's continued intransigence and delaying tactics, Congress has attempted to pass deadline-triggered sanctions to enhance U.S. negotiating leverage. The White House has been staunchly opposed to such measures and has evoked the threat of war and accusations of warmongering to prevent Congress from acting.
The Administration is returning to the warmonger smears it wisely chose to forgo in early 2013. In fact, President Obama himself, in his 2009 Nobel Peace Prize acceptance speech, promoted sanctions as a non-violent policy tool used to avoid war.
Sanctions on Iran continue to serve as the most effective peaceful policy option as the regime advances its nuclear program, sponsors terrorism, threatens the U.S. with destruction, and pursues regional hegemony. It is a testament to the effectiveness of these sanctions that the regime and its surrogates put such effort into stigmatizing and opposing sanctions.
It is not a binary choice between negotiations or war, as the White House implies. At this time, Iran has shown that it is unwilling to compromise and significantly roll back its nuclear program. As a result, more pressure must come to bear on the regime to achieve this goal.
The Obama administration claims that new sanctions will jeopardize the significant gains achieved under the JPA. However, these gains are an illusion. While Iran continues to advance its nuclear program and revitalize its economy, the international community steadily loses negotiating leverage. In 2014, U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew affirmed that due to "the most sweeping, most powerful, most innovative, and most comprehensive sanctions regime in history... Iran finally came to the negotiating table..." While sanctions pressure brought Iran to the negotiating table, the regime is not yet ready to compromise. Only by expanding these sanctions will Iran finally be forced to do so.
In Conclusion
The three main premises underscoring a depiction of the JPA process as a success have proven false. The JPA is not working as Iran's nuclear program advances and its economy recovers. The Iranian regime remains an extremist, revolutionary power, led by a zealously anti-American Supreme Leader to whom President Rouhani is steadfastly loyal. And, counter to the Administration's alarmist predictions about war, sanctions remain the primary non-violent policy tool available to the Administration to counter the Iranian regime's continued intransigence.
### |
Receive Iran News in Your Inbox.
Eye on Iran is a news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), a section 501(c)(3) organization. Eye on Iran is available to subscribers on a daily basis or weekly basis.