Geneva Interim Agreement: Midterm Analysis

April 15, 2014

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
April 15, 2014  
Contact: Nathan Carleton, [email protected]
Phone: (212) 554-3296

Geneva Interim Agreement: Midterm Analysis
Three Months Into Agreement Implementation, Iran is Enjoying Substantial Sanctions Relief, Without Making Proportional Limits to Its Nuclear Program

New York, NY - Today, United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) released an updated analysis of the Geneva Interim Agreement.

Halfway into the agreement implementation, Iran is enjoying substantial economic benefits from sanctions relief, while still developing its nuclear program. As Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said today: "Today we already see the sanctions unraveling." 

Since the signing of the accord, UANI has been maintaining its Geneva Interim Agreement Tracker (www.uani.com/geneva) to record these developments.     

SANCTIONS RELIEF BY THE NUMBERS

  ↑ 117%

Increase in Iran's oil exports from October 2013, before the Geneva interim agreement, to February 2014.

↑ 17%

Increase in the value of the Iranian rial since Rouhani's election.

↑ 62%

Increase in the value of the Tehran Stock Exchange index since Rouhani's election.

↑ 15%

Reduction in inflation, "from about 45 percent in July 2013 to below 30 percent in December 2013."

↑ 1.5%

Predicted growth in Iran's GDP for 2014/2015, following an estimated contraction of 1.7% in 2013/2014 and 5.8% in 2012/2013.

PACE OF U.S. SANCTIONS ENFORCEMENT HAS SLOWED

2013-2014 Iran SDN Sanctions Designations

Designation Announcements

Entities Added

2/6/2013 

4

3/14/2013 

25

4/11/2013 

6

5/9/2013 

15

5/15/2013 

2

5/16/2013 

39

5/23/2013 

20

5/30/2013 

3

5/31/2013 

31

6/4/2013 

38

--Rouhani Elected on June 14--

9/6/2013 

10

12/12/2013 

19

2/6/2013 

20

TOTAL Before Rouhani's Election

183

TOTAL After Rouhani's Election

49

TOTAL Designations Since Nov. 24 Geneva Agreement

39

IRAN'S CONTINUED NUCLEAR PROGRESS

Last week, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry acknowledged that the nuclear "concessions" Iran has made under the interim agreement have extended its nuclear breakout time only two weeks since the initiation of the deal, to a period of just two months. Iran continues to:

  • Develop new, advanced centrifuges.
  • Test long-range ballistic missiles.
  • Expand its stockpile of low-enriched uranium (LEU).
  • Acquire and smuggle banned components for its nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

IRANIAN OFFICIALS CONTINUE TO HOLD TO A HARDLINE ON NUCLEAR PROGRAM

Issue

Iranian Official

'Right to Enrich'

"We believe that we are entitled to any right that any NPT and (International Atomic Energy) Agency member has, which means that enrichment (of uranium) from 1% to 90% is our right." - Director of Iran's atomic energy agency Ali Akbar Salehi (April 13)

Size of Nuclear Program

"To meet the annual fuel needs of the Bushehr plant, we must have 50,000 first generation centrifuges in order to be able to produce 30 tons of nuclear fuel a year." [Iran currently possesses about 20,000 centrifuges] - Director of Iran's atomic energy agency Ali Akbar Salehi (April 13)

Research & Development

"All should know that negotiations will not stop or slow down any of Iran's activities in nuclear research and development." - Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei (April 9)

Arak Heavy Water Reactor

"The (heavy-water nuclear) reactor of Arak will remain as the heavy-water reactor." - Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi (April 8)

Ballistic Missile Program

"We emphasize that topics that have to do with Iran's defense program have no place in these negotiations." - Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif (April 9)

HUMAN RIGHTS UNDER ROUHANI

Since Rouhani took office, the pace of executions has increased in what can only be described as an "execution binge."

Executions

2013

349 

2014

188+ 

TOTAL

537+

Click here to view UANI's Geneva Interim Agreement Tracker.
Click here to view UANI's Rouhani Accountability Tracker.
Click here to view UANI's resource on "Rouhani's Record in Office."