TOP STORIES
US Tells Staff In Israel Not To Travel Outside Cities Amid Iran Threat | Reuters
The United States said on Thursday it had restricted its employees in Israel and their family members from personal travel outside the greater Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Be'er Sheva areas amid Iran's threats to retaliate against its regional adversary. Iran has vowed revenge for the April 1 airstrike on its embassy compound in Damascus, ratcheting up tension in a region already strained by the Gaza war. "Out of an abundance of caution, U.S. government employees and their family members are restricted from personal travel outside the greater Tel Aviv (including Herzliya, Netanya, and Even Yehuda), Jerusalem, and Be'er Sheva areas until further notice," the U.S. embassy said in a security alert, opens new tab on its website on Thursday. "U.S. government personnel are authorized to transit between these three areas for personal travel."
Argentina Court Blames 'Terrorist State' Iran For 1990s Attacks | AFP News
Over three decades after deadly attacks in Buenos Aires targeted Israel's embassy and a Jewish center, an Argentine court placed the blame Thursday on Iran and declared it a "terrorist state," according to local media. The ruling, cited by press reports, said Iran had ordered the attack in 1992 on Israel's embassy and the 1994 attack on the Argentine Israelite Mutual Association (AMIA) Jewish center. The court also implicated the Iran-backed Shiite movement Hezbollah and called the attack against the AMIA -- the deadliest in Argentina's history -- a "crime against humanity," according to court documents cited by media reports. "Hezbollah carried out an operation that responded to a political, ideological and revolutionary design under the mandate of a government, of a State," Carlos Mahiques, one of the three judges who issued the decision, told Radio Con Vos, referencing Iran.
Iranian Attack Expected On Israel In Next Two Days | The Wall Street Journal
Israel is preparing for a direct attack from Iran on southern or northern Israel as soon as Friday or Saturday, according to a person familiar with the matter. A person briefed by the Iranian leadership, however, said that while plans to attack are being discussed, no final decision has been made. Iran has publicly threatened to retaliate for an attack last week in Damascus, Syria, that Tehran said was an Israeli airstrike on a diplomatic building. The strike killed top Iranian military officials, including a senior member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ elite Quds Force. Earlier this week, U.S. intelligence reports showed that an attack on Israeli assets by Iran or its proxies could be imminent, but a source says it now appears that the attack could be within Israel’s borders.
UANI IN THE NEWS
All Iran’s Options For An Attack On Israel – And How Netanyahu Could Respond | The Telegraph
…“Despite all the noise made by the Iranian regime, a direct strike against Israel by its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) remains highly improbable,” said Kasra Aarabi, an expert on the Iranian military at the United Against a Nuclear Iran advocacy group. “Instead, the IRGC is currently engaged in waging a mass psychological warfare operation with the goal of making the fear of an attack worse than an actual strike,” he said. “If last night’s psychological operation was to inflict fear on regional states that host US forces and/or have ties with Israel – increasing their angst that they could be targets – then the IRGC will be pleased with the outcome.”
Exclusive-Russian Oil And Products Trapped On Tankers Hit By New Iran-Related Sanctions | Saltwire
…Claire Jungman, chief of staff at U.S. advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran, which tracks Iran-related tanker traffic via satellite data confirmed movements of both vessels, adding that since 2021 Elsa has transported over 9 million barrels of Iranian crude or fuel oil to the UAE, Singapore and China.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
Oil Falls Near $85 As Swelling Stockpiles Overshadow Iran Risk | Bloomberg
Oil gave up the previous day’s gains as swelling US stockpiles overshadowed the possibility of an attack on Israel by Iran or its proxies. West Texas Intermediate fell 1.4% after crude inventories in the US rose 5.84 million barrels last week, holding at the highest since July. Still, oil settled just above $85 a barrel as the US and its allies brace for Iran to strike Israel in retaliation for an attack on a diplomatic compound in Syria last week. Adding to the headwinds in recent days was a hot US inflation print, which may delay rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Oil is up about 19% this year, driven by geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ supply cuts. The producer group said the oil market will need close monitoring over the summer, when demand is expected to surge.
Gold Rallies Above $2,400 As Middle East Risks Stoke Demand | Bloomberg
Gold jumped to another record as the safe haven asset was boosted by simmering Middle East tensions. Bullion climbed as much as 1.2% to $2,400.67, while silver traded at the highest since February 2021. Israel is preparing for an assault from Iran in the next two days, in retaliation for its strike on the country’s diplomatic compound in Syria last week, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing a person familiar with the matter.
TERRORISM & EXTREMISM
Pakistan Bans Iran-Backed Shiite Group Fighting In Syria | Voice Of America
Pakistan has banned the activities of an Iran-backed Shiite militant group allegedly involved in recruiting and sending young Pakistanis to fight in Syria in support of President Bashar al-Assad's regime. An Interior Ministry directive, seen Thursday by VOA, identified the proscribed outfit as the Zaynabiyoun Brigade, saying it "is engaged in certain activities which are prejudicial to the peace and security" of Pakistan. It did not elaborate. A ministry official, who spoke to VOA anonymously because he was not authorized to interact publicly with the media, confirmed the authenticity of the March 29 order and placement of the Zaynabiyoun Brigade on a government list of 79 proscribed organizations. The United States designated the Zaynabiyoun Brigade as a terrorist organization in 2019, saying it is composed of Pakistani nationals and provides "materiel support" to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC.
Argentina Court Blames 'Terrorist State' Iran For 1990s Attacks | AFP News
Over three decades after deadly attacks in Buenos Aires targeted Israel's embassy and a Jewish center, an Argentine court placed the blame Thursday on Iran and declared it a "terrorist state," according to local media. The ruling, cited by press reports, said Iran had ordered the attack in 1992 on Israel's embassy and the 1994 attack on the Argentine Israelite Mutual Association (AMIA) Jewish center. The court also implicated the Iran-backed Shiite movement Hezbollah and called the attack against the AMIA -- the deadliest in Argentina's history -- a "crime against humanity," according to court documents cited by media reports. "Hezbollah carried out an operation that responded to a political, ideological and revolutionary design under the mandate of a government, of a State," Carlos Mahiques, one of the three judges who issued the decision, told Radio Con Vos, referencing Iran.
MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS
The United States believes Iran may retaliate against Israel in coming days, according to two sources familiar with intelligence on the matter. The intelligence that Iran could use drones and missiles to attack "regional assets" by Israel has been shared with U.S. lawmakers. U.S. officials believe the attacks would be done in retaliation for Israel's airstrike in Damascus, Syria, last week, which killed a top commander in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps along with six other personnel. If Iran's retaliatory happens, officials believe the attacks have the potential to widen the scope of the war in Gaza. "They're threatening to launch a significant attack on Israel," Biden said at a news conference Wednesday. "As I told Prime Minister [Benjamin] Netanyahu, our commitment to Israel's security against these threats from Iran and its proxies is ironclad. Let me say it again, ironclad. We're going to do all we can to protect Israel's security," he added.
Iran Wants To Hit Israel While Avoiding Retaliation From Washington, US Assesses | POLITICO
Iran is calibrating its plans for a major retaliatory strike against Israel to send a message — but not spark a regional war that compels Washington to respond, the U.S. assesses. Biden administration officials judge that Iran is planning a larger-than-usual aerial attack on Israel in the coming days, one that will likely feature a mix of missiles and drone strikes, said two U.S. officials who were granted anonymity to detail sensitive discussions. Neither official said they were fully confident Iran will succeed in striking Israel in a way that doesn’t prompt the U.S. to respond militarily, as any attack increases the risk of a greater conflagration in the Middle East. But Iran doesn’t seek to expand the regional crisis further, the Biden administration has long determined, which the officials said may be weighing on Tehran’s planning. The National Security Council declined to comment. But President Joe Biden, speaking during a Wednesday news conference, said Iran was “threatening to launch a significant attack on Israel.”
Israeli Defence Minister Says A Direct Iranian Attack Would Require Appropriate Response | Reuters
Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said on Thursday that Israel would respond directly to any attack by Iran. “A direct Iranian attack will require an appropriate Israeli response against Iran," Gallant told U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, according to remarks issued by his office. The Pentagon said the two discussed the United States' "iron-clad" commitment to Israel's security against threats from Iran and its proxies. "Echoing President Biden's unequivocal message to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, Secretary Austin assured Minister Gallant that Israel could count on full U.S. support to defend Israel against Iranian attacks, which Tehran has publicly threatened," the Pentagon said.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
Iranian Lawmaker Calls New Punitive Hijab Bill ‘Compassionate’ | Iran International
An Iranian lawmaker, involved in drafting Iran’s controversial new compulsory hijab bill, claims it is "compassionate" in nature. The bill, imposing severe punishments on women and girls for not wearing the mandated hijab, has previously been described by UN experts as constituting "gender apartheid." "It's crucial for the public to recognize that the approach in the legislation has been gentle from its inception," said Mehdi Bagheri. The bill, officially titled "Protection of Family Through Promotion of Hijab and Chastity Culture," initially secured parliamentary approval in September 2023. Encountering an unexpected setback, the proposal faced rejection from the Guardian Council, which holds ultimate legislative authority. The council cited alleged formal deficiencies and called for revisions to clarify ambiguous terms.
IRANIAN REGIONAL AGGRESSION
Signs Emerge Of Potentially Restrained Retaliatory Attack By Iran | Iran International
A second night of apprehension in Tehran and Tel Aviv passed eventless Thursday, as the US and Britain vowed to back Israel in case of an Iranian retaliatory attack. Reports from American and Israeli sources pointing to a ‘significant’ operation against Israel first emerged on Wednesday and spurred regional and world leaders to call for restraint and de-escalation. Officials from Russia, Germany (and even Australia) intervened in different ways to dissuade Iranian leaders from striking back at Israel in response to the targeting of Iran’s consulate in Damascus on April 1st, which killed seven military officers, including two top Revolutionary Guards commanders. But Iran continues to threaten a retaliatory attack, albeit in a relatively less incendiary fashion that was originally believed. President Joe Biden and senior officials in his administration have repeatedly affirmed “ironclad” support for Israel against Iran.
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
Russia And Germany Urge Restraint As Iranian Threat Puts Middle East On Edge | Reuters
Russia and Germany on Thursday urged countries in the Middle East to show restraint and Israel said it was preparing to "meet all its security needs" in a region on edge over an Iranian threat to strike Israel. The German airline Lufthansa, one of only two Western carriers flying to Tehran, extended a suspension of its flights to the Iranian capital and Russia warned against travel to the Middle East. Iran has vowed revenge for the April 1 airstrike on its embassy compound in Damascus that killed a top Iranian general and six other Iranian military officers, ratcheting up tension in a region already strained by the Gaza war. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel was keeping up its war in Gaza but making security preparations elsewhere.
Pentagon Frustrated By Lack Of Notice From Israel In Syria Strike | Washington Post
Senior Pentagon officials were frustrated that Israel did not notify the United States before conducting a strike on an Iranian site in Syria this month, an escalation that they assess increases risks to American forces in the Middle East, U.S. officials said. Iran has vowed retaliation for the April 1 strike on a building adjacent to its embassy in the Syrian capital, Damascus, which killed two senior commanders from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, an organization with a long history of supporting violent attacks against Israel and the United States. U.S. and Israeli officials are closely coordinating how they may respond to an Iranian counterstrike, officials said, with a top American general visiting Israel on Thursday. Three U.S. officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss security matters said Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and other senior defense officials believed Israel should have informed them ahead of time because of the strike’s implications for U.S. troops and interests in the region.
CHINA & IRAN
US Asks China To Tell Iran Not To Retaliate Against Israel | Financial Times
The US has asked China and other countries, including Turkey and Saudi Arabia, to urge Tehran not to launch a retaliatory attack on Israel for its air strike on the Iranian consulate in Syria. US secretary of state Antony Blinken spoke to counterparts, including Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi, this week amid mounting concern in Washington of an imminent attack by Iran. “We have also engaged with European allies and partners over the past few days and urged them as well to send a clear message to Iran: that escalation is not in Iran’s interest, it’s not in the region’s interest and it’s not in the world’s interest,” said state department spokesperson Matt Miller. Other western and Arab governments have also sought to convince Iran to show restraint, as they grow increasingly concerned that Tehran is preparing to respond directly against Israel, rather than through regional proxies, to avenge the assassination of several Iranian top generals.
China Says Wang Yi Condemned Iran Embassy Attack In Blinken Call | Bloomberg
China said its top diplomat discussed tensions in the Middle East on a call with Secretary of State Antony Blinken, underscoring fears that the six-month-old Gaza conflict may escalate. Wang Yi “stressed that China strongly condemns the attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria,” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said at a regular press briefing in Beijing.
OTHER FOREIGN AFFAIRS
US Has Asked Countries In The Region To Press Iran Not To Engage In War In Sudan | Reuters
The U.S. has had direct conversations with countries accused of fueling the conflict in Sudan and has encouraged regional states to press Iran not to engage in the war, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield said on Thursday. Reuters reported on Wednesday that Iranian-made armed drones had helped the army turn the tide of the conflict, halting the progress of the rival paramilitary Rapid Support Force (RSF) and regaining territory around the capital, according to a senior army source.